Hydrogen refueling station infrastructure roll-up, an indicative assessment of the commercial viability and profitability

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the roll-out of a hydrogen refuelling station (HRS) infrastructure in Romania. The work contribute s to a preliminary, indicative assessment of the commercial viability and profitability of a hydrogen refuelling station network roll-out. For this concrete case were pro vided scenarios with a 200,000 fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) fleet and 150, 250 and 350 HRS. The results refer to: the annual number evolution of HRSs based on the inputs provided by user; the annual number evolution of FCEVs; annual total hydrogen sold, kg; annual capital expenditures on HES procurement (CAPEX); cash flow after interest and debt payment representing the cash flow available for equity holders; annual debt service coverage ratio (ADSCR); net present value (NPV) at the end of period, key metric to assess the overall profitability of the investment. First scenario indicates positive values for net present value (NPV) that means it is commercially viable. For this case a series of sensitive analyses has been realized. In the majority of this analyses NPV shows positive values and ADSCR is greater than 1.1. The analysis of the roll -out of a hydrogen refuelling station network in Romania indicated that the main negative influence of the infrastructure development program seems to be the unfavorable economic conditions than technical issues.